David Pleat: Kalou impressed but Cole may be key
Salomon Kalou was a key man for Chelsea but Carlo Ancelotti may look to Joe Cole to unlock Inter’s defence
Shape
Bereft of left-backs, Carlo Ancelotti decided Florent Malouda would be his best option in that position on two counts: he is left-footed and, given Internazionale’s wingless shape, he would not have to worry about a wide player dribbling towards him. Chelsea started with three front players, with any one of the trio needed to drift wide and close down the opposition full-backs when they looked to build attacks. Chelsea were relying on their wide midfielders, Frank Lampard and Michael Ballack, to give them width or, more likely, hoped the full-backs Malouda and Branislav Ivanovic could get forward. With a second leg to come, however, Ancelotti would have planned to keep it tight and snatch an away goal.
Tactics and teamwork
After the shock of Diego Milito’s early goal, Chelsea were not disturbed. They protected Peter Cech well and developed a passing stride. Salomon Kalou, an important figure on the night, held the left side of Chelsea’s front line and, when possession was lost, helped cover Malouda and confront the Inter right-back Maicon. Mikel John Obi kept a close watch on Wesley Sneijder, who was the most forward and the most influential of the Inter midfield diamond. When Chelsea had the ball, Malouda joined the midfield build-up at every opportunity and the visitors’ front three contained José Mourinho’s back four well while also dictating possession. The majority of their shots, however, were coming from a comfortable range for Júlio César in the Inter goal to deal with. As the first half progressed, both Ivanovic and Malouda gained confidence going forward and Chelsea’s narrow midfield was stopping Inter gaining much possession. But they in turn were happy to keep their shape and never got caught out of position. The importance of closing Sneijder down quickly would have been emphasised by Ancelotti at half-time.
Did it succeed?
Overall, Chelsea must be happy with the result they achieved in a difficult theatre. Kalou’s goal was deserved after he had earlier been denied and at that stage Chelsea had created 12 goal attempts compared to Inter’s three. Ivanovic had continued his drives from full-back but Esteban Cambiasso’s goal proved a setback and was a wonderful example of a “knee over the ball” shot. This spurred the canny Mourinho into introducing Mario Balotelli for his ineffective midfielder Thiago Motta. Now Inter mirrored Chelsea’s system of three up front as Balotelli stood wide and attacked Malouda. With Sneijder deeper, however, this helped Chelsea’s midfield to push up the field a bit more. Looking ahead to the return match, Ancelotti may need some of Joe Cole’s trickery to unlock the powerful Inter defence where, last night, Lúcio and Javier Zanetti were superb.
José Mourinho’s Inter built on same foundations as his best Chelsea sides | David Pleat
With Lúcio filling the Ricardo Carvalho role and Wesley Sneijder emulating Frank Lampard, this Inter side have a familiar feel
José Mourinho only knows success. Fastidious in his preparation and training, his supreme confidence is justified by results. He is irritating and controversial in flaunting his achievements. Porto, Chelsea and Internazionale follow the same pattern. The principles of his management style are continually replicated.
When Ricardo Carvalho and John Terry were the backbone of Chelsea, Mourinho insisted that the Portuguese centre-back took every opportunity to move forward. He readily strode upfield, passed the ball to a midfield colleague and continued his run. Seconds later he would appear in the opposition area, seeking a strike at goal.
Now Lúcio performs similarly for Inter. He is a rock defensively. When Inter went down to nine men against Sampdoria last weekend, his head seemed magnetised to the ball. In persuading his “spare” centre-back to join the play, Mourinho has maximised that position.
Mourinho also uses the insurance policy of a midfield player in front of his centre-backs. At Chelsea the wonderfully economical Claude Makelele did the job so well that the position was tagged “the Makelele role”. In Italy, Mourinho has kept an experienced and numerically strong midfield, recognising that in any team the supply line comes from this area.
He is very aware of balance, and Sulley Muntari and Esteban Cambiasso illustrate the importance of left-footed players. They are supported by the powerful Serb Dejan Stankovic, who breaks up attacks. But the jewel in the crown is Wesley Sneijder. His movement with the ball is not dissimilar to the exciting surges of Frank Lampard, whom Mourinho valued so much.
Samuel Eto’o is Mourinho’s answer to Nicolas Anelka, who was signed by Chelsea following the Portuguese’s departure. Eto’o runs the channels and plays less selfishly than in Barcelona. The powerful Mario Balotelli has some way to go before emulating Didier Drogba, though, but he has the power. Against Milan recently, Diego Milito was paired with Goran Pandev, and they made a disappointing defence look ponderous in a 2-0 win.
David Pleat: Moreno was too isolated for Wigan
The Latics had plenty of width but their midfield players did not get close enough to Marcelo Moreno
Shape
Wigan are handicapped by a poor playing surface, which does not sit well with the manager Roberto Martínez’s principles of a passing game. Memories of the wipeout at White Hart Lane, where they lost 9-1 earlier this season, would have been uppermost in the Spaniard’s mind. As at Swansea he likes to split his frontmen, play four defenders and fill his midfield. The tough-tackling Hendry Thomas provided the shield, supported by Mohamed Diame and James McCarthy. The system can make them difficult to beat, but the lone frontrunner often finds goals difficult to come by. Wigan would have hoped Charles N’Zogbia could trouble Gareth Bale and force the Tottenham left-back to defend.
Tactics and teamwork
In the early exchanges they showed signs of strength and pace in wide areas. Thomas tackled firmly while McCarthy and Diame were quick to harass the Tottenham midfield, which restricted the service to Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch. When Bale made an extra man wide to supply Defoe with a fortuitous tap-in one wondered how Wigan would react, but though they had enough of the ball, the home side failed to threaten. When they went forward they lacked goalmouth support. The lone striker, Marcelo Moreno, habitually ran behind Tottenham’s full-backs into wide areas, away from the goal, and as a consequence he did not receive the support he needed from midfield. As the Bolivian ran out of the middle, he needed close support to help transfer the ball into the box before Tottenham could get organised. Even when this did happen, no Wigan player was in the penalty area in time to challenge for it. Defensively Wigan looked tight, and in the first period protected Chris Kirkland from any potential danger.
Did it succeed?
No. Perhaps Wigan might have adjusted earlier rather than wait until the last 30 minutes to play with two up front. When that did happen, Hugo Rodallega made a closer link with Moreno, while Victor Moses came on to hold the left side with Thomas, the midfield anchor, dispatched. This mirrored Spurs’ system and guaranteed more strength when the ball was hoisted forward. Even in the last half-hour, though, Tottenham held their ground and Moses and N’Zogbia were comfortably forced across the field, where they were unable to cross the ball.
Redknapp’s substitutions worked perfectly, Roman Pavlyuchenko was fresh and motivated while Luka Modric skipped over the surface as Wigan, in search of a goal of their own, opened up their midfield. Some head-scratching awaits for Martínez as he seeks to cure his side’s severe lack of goal threat. He must surely adjust his system to reflect a pitch that suits more direct play.
Portsmouth’s day in court – what the ruling means for the club
• Stay of winding-up order but plea for 21 days rejected
• Concerns about club appearing to trade while insolvent
How long do Portsmouth have to stave off a compulsory winding-up order?
Their attorney Nigel Hood argued for 21 days to complete an in-depth financial statement of affairs. The club has appointed Vantis plc to undertake the review and argued that it would take 21 days to complete it properly and a few days for all parties to consider the implications. But the registrar rejected thisargument, with her worries that the club is trading insolvently leading her to impose a narrow time frame of seven days to provide the statement of affairs plus two days for it to be considered. She ruled that it should be heard at the first available court date after that.
Why did the registrar not just go through with the winding-up petition?
She appeared sufficiently persuaded that new evidence provided overnight by Tanya Robins – the club’s finance manager who recently stepped down from the board but appears to have reassumed greater influence since Balram Chainrai’s takeover – should be considered. She is believed to have outlined Chainrai’s proposed financial restructuring and offered a revised plan for paying off the club’s debts to creditors. But pleas from the club for more time fell on deaf ears and the club was sternly rebuked for appearing to trade while insolvent and for settling debts via third parties, its bank account having been frozen.
How much do Portsmouth owe the Revenue?
The amount included in the original petition was £11.4m, including a VAT bill of £5.9m that is disputed by the club, plus a surcharge of almost £900,000 and PAYE and National Insurance of £4.6m. While £4m of the PAYE bill had since been paid off, HMRC said in court today that a further £4.7m in unpaid PAYE debts had been racked up since December.
Why are Portsmouth disputing the VAT bill?
In an argument that was sarcastically described as “ingenious” by Gregory Mitchell, the HMRC’s barrister, Portsmouth said the club has erroneously received £7.4m in VAT on player transfers. It says this should be repaid to other clubs and not to the Revenue. It lost an initial hearing on this case but was given leave to appeal. The club said today the appeal should be heard before any decision was taken on the winding-up order but that was rejected by the registrar.
What about other creditors?
Hood said that all but one of a list of 10 other creditors on a separate petition had now been paid. A firm of solicitors claimed it was still owed £45,471.05 in court while a creditor said he was owed money. That payment was disputed by the club.
How could Portsmouth extricate themselves?
The club has three options. One, to find new investment before next week. Hood mentioned two potential new bidders for the club in his arguments but there must be doubts over whether proof of new investment could be secured in time to convince a judge it would have a material effect. Two, it could find the money to pay off the Revenue from a combination of money owed by the Premier League (around £4m from overseas TV and marketing income) and investment from third parties. Three, it could enter administration at any point up to a few hours before the new hearing. But that would incur a 10-point penalty, condemning them to almost certain relegation, leaving creditors – including its directors – with large losses.
What does HMRC want?
Essentially, it wants its money back on behalf of the public. While it says football clubs are being treated like any other business sector, there has been a marked change in attitude in recent months. A flurry of winding-up orders has coincided with a determination to receive payment in full, rather than falling behind football creditors – who must be paid in first and in full – when a club tips into administration.The registrar made it clear that for all the special pleading by Hood on behalf of the club’s 600 staff, 12,000 season ticket holders, broadcasters and the other clubs in the league, it would be treated like any other business.
Record low £30m in transfer window deals signals new economic reality
The Premier League clubs have reined in their spending as the need to live within their means sinks in
Care should be taken before generalising too wildly about this transfer window in which the least amount, £30m – according to the accountants Deloitte – was spent since the system was introduced in 2003, dramatically less than the record £170m spent last year.
The relative parsimony of this January’s spending does not mean that Premier League clubs are in financial meltdown, although, clearly, the climate has turned chilly. Portsmouth are the extreme case, a club embargoed by the Premier League for much of January from making any signings because they still owe instalments on players signed in 2007 who have since departed. Hull City’s auditors have stated publicly that the club must reduce its costs by £16m even if Phil Brown’s men survive in the Premier League, so chairman Adam Pearson’s balancing act has been to decide which players can be retained so City might have a chance of doing both.
It is generally accepted that a sudden realisation of the need to end their never-never profligacy has thudded into most clubs below the biggest. Hull and Portsmouth both borrowed against future television income, and Standard Bank’s demands to have all the money repaid precipitated Pompey’s near-collapse.
Several senior Premier League figures said that banks have reined in their lending to football clubs. While transfer fees and new signings are falling as a result, there is no sign, according to one chairman, that players’ wage inflation is even slowing. Steve Morgan, the Wolves chairman, who has kept a check on spending despite the club’s promotion windfall, said: “In football and generally in business banks are not backing people to extend themselves against future earnings. That is the new realism. Football is having to realise we can’t keep living beyond our means, and hocking the future to pay for the present.”
The imminence of next season’s Uefa-inspired rule limiting squads to 25, of whom eight must be “homegrown” players, is encouraging even stable Premier League clubs, or those with still willing owners, to offload players, not sign more. In the move to encourage opportunities for young players, unlimited numbers of those aged under 21 are allowed to supplement the 25, and that partly explains this window’s most eye-catching deal, Manchester United’s £10.7m signing of the 20-year-old centre-half Chris Smalling, who has played just 11 first-team matches for Fulham.
United’s chief executive, David Gill, insisted at the weekend that Sir Alex Ferguson does have the proceeds of Cristiano Ronaldo’s sale to spend, despite the club’s £716m debts and £500m bond prospectus, which gave United licence to use £70m to reduce the money owed to hedge funds by the owners, the Glazer family.
Liverpool, the other club subjected to a leveraged buyout by American owners who shifted their own borrowings on to the club, have made it clear there is not much spare cash for the manager Rafael Benítez to shop for players with.
Standing apart from the rest are two clubs who remain undeniably rich. Yet Chelsea have spent nothing, their Russian owner, Roman Abramovich, signalling that he really would like to make good his pledge to one day break even financially at Stamford Bridge. At Manchester City, Sheikh Mansour of Abu Dhabi is not suddenly poor. Unlike the Glazers at Old Trafford, he is not thought to be personally borrowing money from his club, yet even City have not been lavish.
Last January City spent £44.5m buying Shay Given, Wayne Bridge, Craig Bellamy and Nigel de Jong but, after another spree in the summer, the club stated they would not be similarly acquisitive this time. Their new manager, Roberto Mancini, has had to content himself with adding only Patrick Vieira and Adam Johnson, who joined Middlesbrough yesterday, to the costly squad he inherited.
Tottenham were last January’s other big spenders, £48m furnishing Harry Redknapp with Jermain Defoe, Robbie Keane and Wilson Palacios, plus Carlo Cudicini, on a free transfer, and Pascal Chimbonda for an undisclosed fee. Spurs fans, and players, must hope the club has the backing to pay the ongoing bills rather more reliably than Redknapp’s previous club, Portsmouth.
The Premier League clubs, mostly, seem to have suddenly realised they cannot keep borrowing and spending, to fuel rampant transfer inflation.
Then there is Arsenal, the one club to have generated a large pot of cash, have a manager who resolutely, for reasons of principle, is declining to spend it.
Mostly, however, the Premier League clubs have suddenly realised they cannot keep borrowing and spending to fuel rampant transfer inflation.
David Pleat: Arsenal’s midfield left them exposed
Once Arsenal’s lightweight attacking options had been nullified, United were free to hit them on the break at will
Shape
Arsène Wenger was fortunate in that he could reunite William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen in the face of the threat posed by Wayne Rooney. Anticipating that Sir Alex Ferguson would play with a split front three, the Frenchman selected a side to mirror Manchester United’s shape with two midfield gatekeepers: Alexandre Song and Denilson, alongside the door opener, Cesc Fábregas. Up front Wenger deployed three diminutive forwards: Samir Nasri on the left, Andrey Arshavin centrally and Tomas Rosicky on the right. It looked a skilful but lightweight attack and one wondered if there would be enough power and penetration to get behind the defence. When Everton visited the Emirates recently, they played a high line and Arsenal could not get behind their back line due to a lack of forceful, quick runners.
Tactics and teamwork
It was Nasri’s job to attack United’s right-back Rafael in the early minutes. Wenger would have thought the young Brazilian could be tested following his suspect showings against Manchester City in the Carling Cup. Instead, however, United countered this tactic by taking advantage when possession changed hands. Nani attacked Gaël Clichy with sprightly running in the other direction and, having scored the first, it was his brilliant counter-attack that led to United’s second goal, through Rooney. Before this, Ferguson had also reorganised his midfield with Michael Carrick and Paul Scholes swapping positions. This caused Arsenal further problems as Carrick did a better job than Scholes in protecting the space around Arshavin, who had already wasted a couple of scoring options and was not enjoying the attentions of Wes Brown and Jonny Evans. The Russian needed more support if Arsenal were going to recover from being 2-0 down but Wenger clearly did not want to further expose his midfield to more United counter-attacks by bringing on a second striker. So, going into the second-half, he kept his side in the same shape and hoped for the best.
Did it succeed?
No. United simply sat on their lead and whenever Arsenal pushed on in a bid to get back in the game, they broke enterprisingly with the pace of Rooney and Nani and the energy of Park. It was the Korean who got United’s third after Arsenal had been caught out by a classic up-back-through one-touch sequence involving Carrick, Rooney, Carrick again and then finally Park.
Five reasons why Andy Murray lost the Australian Open final
From poor first serves to Roger Federer’s genius, the causes of the Scot’s second grand slam final defeat by the Swiss
1 A slow start on serve
Andy Murray knew that he needed to get a high percentage of first serves into court early on. For an hour, his first serve deserted him. His second serve, which has improved vastly in the past few months, held up pretty well but he was never able to get enough free points from his first serve to allow him to relax and play relatively carefree tennis. With Roger Federer barely missing a return, that put him on the back foot and though he began to play much better as the match wore on, beating Federer from two sets down was always going to be an uphill task. No one has managed it in a grand slam and only Lleyton Hewitt, in a Davis Cup tie, has ever done it anywhere.
2 Reluctance to move forward
This has to be taken in context because if you are going to approach the net against someone as good as Federer, the approach has to be right. But Murray was perhaps guilty of a little hesitancy, particularly when he did find a good serve, and he might have been better off taking some of Federer’s floated returns out of the air rather than letting them land deep. He hit several excellent returns, especially on the backhand side to the Federer backhand, which he could have followed in to the net. Murray had done it superbly en route to the final, but for whatever reason he didn’t feel able to do it in the final.
• Kevin Mitchell’s match report from Melbourne
• In pictures: The best images from the final
• Read Scott Murray’s game-by-game report
• Simon Cambers: Murray ran into a genius
3 Federer changed tactics
In their most recent two matches, which Federer won, the Swiss came out of the blocks quickly, attacking the Murray second serve and even chipping and charging at times in an effort to take control at the net, effectively bullying the Scot into making more mistakes than he normally would. Here he did the opposite, cutting down the risk in his game and reducing his unforced errors as a result. It was controlled, considered tennis and even if it did not throw Murray, it was something different. That is never a bad thing.
4 When the chances came, Murray missed them
Again, this has to tempered by what is coming from the other side of the net but Murray regretted not taking a break point that would have put him up 3-2 in the first set, an opportunity he probably should have taken by being more aggressive on his forehand. In the third set, in which he held five set points in the tiebreak, at 6-5 he made a mental error by trying to take a forehand down the line, rather than playing it back to the Federer backhand. His other real chance came when he put a backhand volley just wide, but the rest were saved legitimately by Federer’s good play.
5 Federer played superbly. Again
Sometimes you just have to admit that the other man played better on the day. Federer served superbly when it mattered, as he so often does, and never allowed Murray to settle. His serve has to be the most underrated shot in men’s tennis and when Murray managed to force an opening, it was invariably closed by a big first serve from the Swiss. For two sets he was near-perfect and though his level dipped ever so slightly at the start of the third, his overall consistency was so high that Murray had to press too hard at times. Had the match gone to a fourth set, who knows what would have happened. But on the day, Federer was the better player.
David Conn: Football’s rulers turn a blind eye to debt
The Game That Ate Itself. That was the title of Observer Sport’s 2004 campaign about English football. So where are we now?
Debt is football’s issue of the moment, propelled into prominence by the revelation of Manchester United’s interest payments, Portsmouth’s payroll problems and Crystal Palace’s fall into administration. This is not, though, a new phenomenon, or surprising: it is one challenge among many that English football, in its unprecedented boom time, has failed, or been unwilling, to grasp.
Those Manchester United supporters who campaigned against the Glazers’ takeover in 2005 warned then that this family of so-called billionaires were bringing to United only the massive borrowings they had taken out to buy the club in the first place. Portsmouth are creaking towards the winding-up court because they had an owner, Sacha Gaydamak, who allowed the club – with loans only, from him and banks – to overpay a team of stars way beyond their means. Then he pulled out.
After years of windfall TV income, sky-high ticket prices and rollercoaster takeovers, most clubs in the Premier and Football Leagues would be insolvent without the backing of owners. However much money comes in, they pay players too much, because of the nature of competition between clubs of different sizes. Football at the highest level already knew the calamitous cost of “living the dream” but Richard Scudamore, the Premier League chief executive, responded to the Football Association chairman Lord Triesman’s warnings about the game’s “debt mountain” in October 2008 by arguing that his clubs’ debts were sustainable and the owners were managing them “responsibly”.
Highlights from The Game That Ate Itself
• Denis Campbell’s original 2004 article
• The big turn-off: Television figures fall
• Dead cert: The rise in ticket prices
• Letters: Too many ‘illiterate roasting playboys’
Since then, Gaydamak has dropped Portsmouth and Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, West Ham’s Icelandic billionaire, melted down with his country’s economy. The Premier League, despite rejecting Triesman’s concerns publicly, did introduce some measures on debt, such as a “going concern test” whereby accountants pronounce on whether a club can fulfil their fixtures for a season. It is not clear, however, that this goes far enough.
At the majority of Premier League clubs, the accountants will say the debts are being managed provided the owners remain solvent and are putting their money in. When the owner becomes suddenly not very rich, as at West Ham and Portsmouth, or turns international fugitive (as happened to Manchester City’s distinguished former owner, Thaksin Shinawatra), the club, immediately, are not sustainable at all.
The Premier and Football Leagues, and the FA, the game’s overall governing body who should be responsible for these issues, all declined to give their thoughts to the Observer, though they said they may in the near future. Those who have contributed offer some fascinating insights, particularly from within football. Alan Smith, for example, noticed overspending creep in with the Premier League’s breakaway in 1992. Football came through 1980s penury and disaster, to realise its true, national game status, then blew its new fortune on making multi-millionaires of this luck-kissed generation of players.
The debt problem which has resulted has a clear link with ownership. These sporting institutions, community organisations, cultural assets – define football clubs how you like but do not say they are ordinary commercial outfits such as vacuum cleaner companies – are bought and sold to anybody, from wherever, because they need the next backer with more money. The outgoing owners, too, usually want mountainous profits, which is contrary to English football’s historic culture and rules, but has become ingrained and accepted in the Premier League era.
The idea that clubs should be mutuals, owned by their supporters, as are Barcelona and Real Madrid and, up to at least 51%, the German clubs, is increasingly recognised as the natural constitution for a football club. It does not guarantee good management, but provides stability of ownership, a strong foundation.
Action to restrain overspending is still required, and Uefa’s financial fair-play initiative, requiring clubs to live within their means, is remarkable: a substantial measure, not mere words, or fiddly window-dressing, to address a major concern. A concern that led to fans protesting yesterday about the financial state of affairs at Cardiff City, following similar scenes in Portsmouth and a planned march in Manchester. United’s debts were the subject, remarkably, of four articles in one newspaper’s business section on successive days last week.
If Uefa succeeds in establishing that rule by 2012-13, it should begin to rein in the overspending. After that, if the big clubs are willing, football can look at how to make the sport more equal, so the richest clubs do not inevitably monopolise the best players. NFL-style equalising of income, with a salary cap, is common sense, and a proven successful combination. There is simply no need for English football, in its richest ever era, to be leaving many millions of pounds unpaid to creditors, and clubs at the brink of ruin.
As for Manchester United- and Liverpool-style “leveraged” buyouts, they surely ought to be banned outright. They bring a scandalous drain to flourishing clubs, leaking out money for the benefit only of banks and the buyers, who seek a profit. It is still difficult to believe that in football, and wider business, such chicanery is even legal.
Martin Offiah’s team-by-team guide to the 2010 Super League season
The Great Britain legend considers each team’s prospects for the season which begins in Wrexham tomorrow night
Bradford Bulls
Last season 9th
Coach Steve McNamara
Captain TBA
In Danny Sculthorpe (Huddersfield), Brett Kearney (Cronulla), Matt Orford, Glenn Hall, Heath L’Estrange (all Manly), Stuart Reardon (Warrington).
Out Sam Burgess (South Sydney), Terry Newton, Glenn Morrison, Ben Jeffries (all Wakefield), Matt Cook (Hull KR), David Solomona (Warrington), Matt James (Harlequins), Semi Tadulala (Gloucester RU), Paul Deacon (Wigan).
Martin Offiah’s verdict After a few disappointing seasons, they have made huge changes, bringing in a raft of top-class experience from Australia’s NRL with Matt Orford, Glenn Hall and Heath L’Estrange from Manly, and Brett Kearney from Cronulla. I still think they’ve got a problem at centre, where they have never really replaced Shontayne Hape after his move to union with Bath, but they should be a shoo-in for the top eight.
William Hill odds 16-1 (6th)
Castleford Tigers
Last season 7th
Coach Terry Matterson
Captain Ryan Hudson
In Steve Snitch (Wakefield), Paul Jackson (Huddersfield).
Out Sione Faumuina (released), James Ford (Widnes), Chris Feather (Villeneuve), Ryan Boyle (Salford).
Martin Offiah’s verdict They could be in for a battle. I said last year that they suffered from having a lot of Indians but no chiefs, especially when Brent Sherwin and Ryan Hudson were out injured for so long. If they stay fit they could challenge for the eight again, because they do have the ability to play great rugby, with young guys such as Richard Owen and Michael Shenton in the backs.
William Hill odds 80-1 (11th)
Catalans Dragons
Last season 8th
Coach Kevin Walters
Captain Thomas Bosc
In Chris Walker (Gold Coast), Setaimata Sa (Sydney Roosters), Dallas Johnson (Melbourne), Tony Gigot (Harlequins).
Out Jason Ryles (Sydney Roosters), Shane Perry, Jason Croker (both released), Vincent Duport (Toulouse), Greg Bird (Gold Coast).
Martin Offiah’s verdict It’s all about how they will cope without Greg Bird, the controversial Australian who was such a big factor in their play‑off run from eighth to within one game of the Grand Final last season. Dallas Johnson, the Aussie who they’ve signed to replace him, was a big part of Melbourne’s success but he’s a different type of player. They should start better than last year now that Kevin Walters is settled in as coach.
William Hill odds 20-1 (7th)
Crusaders
Last season 14th
Coach Brian Noble
Captain Ryan O’Hara
In Nick Youngquest (Gateshead), Gareth Raynor, Jamie Thackray, Tommy Lee (all Hull), Michael Witt (Otago RU), Tony Martin, Frank Winterstein (both Wakefield), Vince Mellars (Auckland Vulcans), Rocky Trimarchi (Wests Tigers).
Out Chris Beasley, Darren Mapp (both Queensland Central Comets), Paul Ballard (Blackpool), Neil Budworth, Josh Hannay (both MacKay Cutters, NSW), Marshall Chalk (Gold Coast Titans), Mark Dalle Cort (Northern Pride), Geraint Davies (Coventry RU), Tony Duggan, Damien Quinn (both Lezignan), Aled James, David Tangata-Toa (both released), Mark Lennon (Burleigh Bears), Matty Smith, Stephen Tyrer (both Salford), Jace Van Dijk (Easts Tigers).
Martin Offiah’s verdict If their players could match the pedigree of their coaching staff, it would be easier to be confident about their chances. With Jon Sharp and Iestyn Harris alongside him, Brian Noble certainly has plenty of support – but given the problems Crusaders have had in trying to build a new squad while relocating from Bridgend to Wrexham, if Brian stops them finishing bottom again they should give him the coach of the year award.
William Hill odds 250-1 (14th)
Harlequins
Last season 11th
Coach Brian McDermott
Captain Rob Purdham
In Andy Ellis (Barrow), Oliver Wilkes (Wakefield), Matt James (Bradford), Ben Jones, Ben Jones-Bishop (both Leeds).
Out Daniel Heckenberg, Chad Robinson (released), Matt Gardner, Jon Grayshon, Gareth Haggerty (all Widnes), Matt Gafa, Joe Mbu (both retired), Mick Nanyn (Leigh), Dylan Skee (Whitehaven).
Martin Offiah’s verdict They are my local club and there’s nothing I’d like to see more than a winning Quins team playing in front of bigger crowds down at the Stoop. They’ve got some quality young lads who have come through the London development system – Tony Clubb, who’s already played for England and looks really sharp after dropping a couple of stone, and Max Edwards, a hooker who reminds me of a young Steve McCurrie. But they already have injury problems.
William Hill odds 125-1 (12th)
Huddersfield Giants
Last season 3rd
Coach Nathan Brown
Captain Brett Hodgson
In David Fa’alogo (South Sydney), Lee Gilmour (St Helens), Greg McNally (Whitehaven), Brad Drew, Scott Grix (both Wakefield), Graeme Horne (Hull), Kyle Wood (Sheffield), Jamie Cording (Castleford).
Out Scott Moore (St Helens), Paul Jackson (Castleford), Liam Fulton (Wests Tigers), Tom Hemingway (Blackpool), Joe Walsh (Sheffield), Danny Sculthorpe (Bradford).
Martin Offiah’s verdict For two thirds of last season, they were fantastic. But for me it all started to go wrong when Nathan Brown rested all his main players at St Helens the week before the Challenge Cup final at Wembley, and started doing weird things such as playing Brett Hodgson at stand-off and dropping Scott Moore to the bench. I think he’ll have learned from that, but I still think they need a more commanding scrum-half to win the big matches.
William Hill odds 12-1 (4th)
Hull FC
Last season 12th
Coach Richard Agar
Captain Sean Long
In Sean Long (St Helens), Mark O’Meley, Craig Fitzgibbon (both Sydney Roosters), Jordan Turner (Salford).
Out Josh Hodgson (Hull KR), Dominic Maloney (Halifax), Gareth Raynor, Jamie Thackray, Tommy Lee (all Crusaders), Graeme Horne (Huddersfield), Chris Thorman (York), Josh Cordoba (Cronulla), Paul King (Wakefield).
Martin Offiah’s verdict When I was asked last autumn who would be this year’s big improvers I said Hull, and certainly if they don’t make the top eight this year big questions will be asked of their coach, Richard Agar. Sean Long is the headline signing but there are plenty of others, such as Craig Fitzgibbon, Mark O’Meley, Jordan Turner and Jordan Tansey, and on their day they should be a serious proposition for any other team.
William Hill odds 25-1 (8th)
Hull Kingston Rovers
Last season 4th
Coach Justin Morgan
Captain Michael Vella
In Joel Clinton (Brisbane, to be confirmed), Matt Cook (Bradford), Josh Hodgson (Hull), Mike Ratu (Leeds).
Out Daniel Fitzhenry (Wests Tigers), Stanley Gene, Makali Aizue (both Halifax), Nick Fozzard (St Helens).
Martin Offiah’s verdict They did so well last year, in contrast to what was happening on the other side of the city, and they’ve retained the key parts of that success, such as Michael Dobson and Paul Cooke as half-backs and Clint Newton and Ben Galea in the second row. But so many other teams who didn’t even finish in the top eight last year have strengthened, so something’s got to give – and Rovers may find it a bit tougher this time around.
William Hill odds 25-1 (8th)
Leeds Rhinos
Last season Champions
Coach Brian McClennan
Captain Kevin Sinfield
In Greg Eastwood (Canterbury), Brett Delaney (Gold Coast), Mike Coady (Doncaster), Kyle Amor (Whitehaven).
Out Lee Smith (Wasps RU), Mike Ratu (Hull KR), Ashley Gibson, Jodie Broughton (both Salford), Danny Allan (Featherstone), Ben Jones-Bishop (Harlequins, on loan), Simon Worrall (Toulouse, on loan).
Martin Offiah’s verdict Three straight Grand Final wins means we’re in the middle of a Leeds dynasty, but it kind of snuck up without anyone noticing because they’ve done it despite finishing behind St Helens in the table a couple of times, and they haven’t done so well in the Challenge Cup. They’re not going to be any worse this year because they’ve lost only Lee Smith, who wasn’t in the best form anyway before he left for rugby union, and they’ve got plenty more exciting talent coming through, such as Kallum Watkins. Definitely favourites to make it four.
William Hill odds Evens (1st)
St Helens
Last season 2nd
Coach Mick Potter
Captain Keiron Cunningham
In Sia Soliola (Sydney Roosters), Nick Fozzard (Hull KR), Scott Moore (Huddersfield).
Out Jason Cayless (Wests Tigers), Sean Long (Hull), Lee Gilmour (Huddersfield).
Martin Offiah’s verdict In a transitional period. Losing Sean Long and Lee Gilmour is going to make them even more reliant on the old names that remain such as Keiron Cunningham, Paul Wellens and Leon Pryce, who for me is still the stand-out stand-off in the competition. Kyle Eastmond is going to be under a lot more pressure as the starting scrum-half and his partnership with Pryce will be very important.
William Hill odds 11-4 (2nd)
Salford City Reds
Last season 13th
Coach Shaun McRae
Captain Malcolm Alker
In Ryan Boyle (Castleford), Matty Smith, Stephen Tyrer (both Crusaders), Daniel Holdsworth (Canterbury Bulldogs), Ashley Gibson, Jodie Broughton (both Leeds).
Out Craig Stapleton, John Wilshere (released), Robbie Paul (Leigh), Jordan Turner (Hull), Richie Myler (Warrington), Paul White (Halifax).
Martin Offiah’s verdict Robbie Paul, who was at Salford for the last couple of years, was telling me they’re a real up‑and‑down team but they need a much better start to the season. They’re going to miss Richie Myler, who has gone to Warrington, and also Robbie for his input around the dressing room. That leaves a lot on the shoulders of Stefan Ratchford, a stand-off who is very highly rated by some good judges and reminds me a lot of my old Widnes team-mate Tony Myler.
William Hill odds 150-1 (13th)
Wakefield Trinity
Last season 5th
Coach John Kear
Captain Jason Demetriou
In Paul Johnson (Warrington), Paul King (Hull), Daryl Millard (Canterbury Bulldogs), Ben Jeffries, Terry Newton, Glenn Morrison (all Bradford), Shane Tronc (North Queensland).
Out Ricky Bibey (Leigh), Jamie Rooney (Barrow), Tony Martin, Frank Winterstein (both Crusaders), Matt Peterson, James Stosic (both released), Brad Drew, Scott Grix (both Huddersfield), Ryan Atkins (Warrington), Steve Snitch (Castleford), Oliver Wilkes (Harlequins).
Martin Offiah’s verdict You’ve got to start with the John Kear factor, because he’s done such an amazing job over the last few years in keeping things together when Wakefield had all sorts of trials and tribulations, and even deaths. He’s such a shrewd character that you can’t overlook them, and he’s made some good signings in Paul Johnson, Glenn Morrison and Terry Newton, although their key man will again be Danny Brough.
William Hill odds 50-1 (10th)
Warrington Wolves
Last season 10th
Coach Tony Smith
Captain Adrian Morley
In Richie Myler (Salford), Ryan Atkins (Wakefield), David Solomona (Bradford).
Out Paul Rauhihi (released), Paul Johnson (Wakefield), Steve Pickersgill (Widnes), Brian Carney (retired).
Martin Offiah’s verdict The Tony Smith revolution continues. He took them to Wembley and a first major trophy for 30 years after taking over early last season, so now the expectations are rising again. I’m really impressed with the signings they’ve made – obviously I was involved with Richie Myler moving from Salford because I represent him, but I reckon David Solomona and Ryan Atkins will also make a big impact. And I’d love to see Kevin Penny scoring tries again in a make-or-break year for him.
William Hill odds 10-1 (3rd)
Wigan Warriors
Last season 6th
Coach Michael Maguire
Captain Five-man leadership group
In Paul Deacon (Bradford).
Out Mark Flanagan (Wests Tigers).
Martin Offiah’s verdict Rather than signing lots of players, they’ve gone for a revamp of their coaching structure, with Michael Maguire coming from Melbourne and ex-Wigan players such as Shaun Wane and Steve Hampson underneath him. But the problem for the new coaches is that Brian Noble didn’t exactly do badly – they were 80 minutes from the Grand Final again last year and a lot of people would say that was an accurate reflection of their ability. That means Maguire will have to get them to a final in the next couple of years.
William Hill odds 12-1 (4th)